Scott Wilson evaluates market dynamics (Part 2)

By where we are in the cycle. You're a very realist investor that to me really likes fundamentals. Today a lot is detached from fundamentals it would seem, especially from the private world where you've got incredible exuberant pricing, real frothiness juxtaposed by this very real public markets reality. How do you think about that? I mean I think the markets have short memories. If you look at the lessons from the original tech bubble in the 2000s and the GFC in 2021 from the crypto bubble, like you know, we're seeing the same kind of stupidity that we saw in all those other cycles. And it's like every five years, particularly in private markets, you know, where I think the investors tend to be just less sophisticated. But it's clear to me that like there's a valuation premium in the private markets. You know, I don't know where anthropic is going to go public but it's clear to me they could have raised capital in the private markets if they stayed stayed in the private markets at north of 2 trillion if they wanted to. I'm not convinced that the public market's going to give them that same valuation. Maybe same with OpenAI. You know, Aura tried to go out, Sarah Bras tried to go or has traded really poorly since the IPO. SpaceX is basically really close to its IPO price. There's just too much capital chasing these kind of late stage champions in the private markets and the valuations are. I think that's why there's no dpi. It's not because the public markets aren't open. The public markets are pretty close to all time highs. It's just you can't go public at the valuation that the private markets will get. Why would you go public? Is this a permanent transition in the financing landscape where to your point that you could raise and stay private? The Collisons have proven that staying private and having a great business is very beneficial. You're still able to do amazing tender offers for your employees. You're able to do M and A and buy open router for 8 billion doll. Hell Scott, why are we going to go public? There's a lot of rationale to stay to stay private. I think ultimately like the public markets are obviously much deeper capital markets. I think you know, when SpaceX raised 85 billion or whatever in the IPO that's pretty tough to do. You know the sovereign wealth funds and the big pension funds and softbank like they can only write so many of those checks and you know, I think most of those capital sources have been exhausted and the public markets are still multiple the size of the private markets. I think there's 14 trillion or something globally in private markets. Do you think we're seeing a massive sell off now to make capacity for anthropic? Could be. It would obviously be a lot.