Nick Shook critiques Bengals and Falcons performance

By statistics Shook. You can check by dvoa, you can search variance. And what variance is, is how is the team from week to week? Are they consistent or not? Are they about the same total score week to week? You could probably guess the answer here, but who do you think is the highest variance team in the NFL by leaps and bounds this year? Almost twice as unpredictable variance wise, as the next closest team in the NFL. The Cincinnati Bengals. It is not. It is not. It's the Atlanta Falcons. I mean, because think about what they've done. They've beat the best team in the league, the 49ers. They have absolutely two blowout victories where they kill the Packers. And who did they kill the week after that? Someone, I forget. The Saints and then the P on the, on the, you know, the dome anniversary. But they've also had those games like against Carolina, they get killed. Against Tampa, they get killed. They've had weeks where they haven't showed up. So that makes me a little worried. But man, the seat, the ceiling's pretty high. The ceiling to me is close to almost better than this Bengals team. It's not, they're not that far away. And I just don't think this Bengals defense is any good. So I just think it's going to be back and forth and I think it's going to be close. That's why I answered Bengals, because I thought we were talking about just defensive variants. This is a Bengals team that, like, from one week to the next, I mean, look at what just happened against Tennessee this past week, right? Yeah. You can't trust them. That's, that's actually part of why I didn't really feel good about this game because they're favorites by three and a half. And I'm like, well, let's think about what the Falcons did against the 49ers. They could do the same thing to Joe Burrow Co. And it would get really weird really quickly. And despite what I like about their front, the rest of the defense doesn't show up from week to week. Like one week to the next is just inconsistent. So that's why I thought they had the higher variance. But then you think about the Falcons journey and everything you just explained. I mean, that makes a ton of sense. And it makes sense why you would take them, you know, with plus three. Kind of. It makes me feel a little, a little worried, but I do feel like they're, they're overseas. It's just weird. It's one of those games where I'm like, I have no idea how that's going to play out. Half their games this season, they have not looked great and last week felt a little fluky. But that's doing a lot of work, I think on that variance against the Buccaneers. Ultimately, I think their best game can battle with the Bengals and it'll be a close one. All right. And so I, I'll take the three and a half points I could see, you know, a field goal to win it for since.